丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿患者再代偿的影响因素分析
DOI: 10.12449/JCH250212
Influencing factors for recompensation in patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis
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摘要:
目的 研究丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期患者再代偿发生的影响因素,建立预测模型。 方法 选取2019年1月—2022年12月在昆明市第三人民医院住院诊断为丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿的患者217例,至少1年之内再住院无门静脉高压相关并发症即再代偿组(n=63),未再代偿者为对照组(n=154)。收集相关临床资料,对可能影响再代偿发生的因素进行单因素及多因素分析。计量资料符合正态分布的两组间比较采用成组t检验,不符合正态分布的两组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验。计数资料两组间比较采用χ²检验或Fisher’s确切概率法。运用二元Logistic回归模型分析丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿患者再代偿发生的影响因素,采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC曲线)评价模型的预测效能。 结果 217例丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期患者中63例发生再代偿(29.03%)。再代偿组与对照组相比,HIV史(χ²=4.566,P=0.034)、部分脾栓塞史(χ²=6.687,P=0.014)、Child-Pugh 评分(χ²=11.978,P=0.003)、腹水分级(χ²=14.229,P<0.001)、Alb(t=4.063,P<0.001)、前白蛋白(Z=-3.077,P=0.002)、HDL(t=2.854,P=0.011)、超敏C反应蛋白(Z=-2.447,P=0.014)、凝血酶原时间(Z=-2.441,P=0.015)、CEA(Z=-2.113,P=0.035)、AFP(Z=-2.063,P=0.039)、CA125(Z=-2.270,P=0.023)、三碘甲状腺素原氨酸(Z=-3.304,P<0.001)、甲状腺素(Z=-2.221,P=0.026)、CD45+(Z=-2.278,P=0.023)、IL-5(Z=-2.845,P=0.004)、TNF-α(Z=-2.176,P=0.030)、门静脉宽度(Z=-5.283,P=0.005)差异均有统计学意义。多因素分析结果显示,部分脾栓塞史(OR=3.064,P=0.049)、HIV史(OR=0.195,P=0.027)、少量腹水(OR=3.390,P=0.017)、AFP(OR=1.003,P=0.004)及门静脉宽度(OR=0.600,P<0.001)为丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期发生再代偿的独立影响因素。ROC曲线结果显示HIV史、腹水分级、部分脾脏栓塞史、AFP、门静脉宽度、联合预测模型的曲线下面积依次为0.556、0.641、0.560、0.589、0.745、0.817。 结论 部分脾栓塞史、少量腹水及AFP水平升高的丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期患者更容易出现再代偿,有HIV史、门静脉宽度增加的患者不易出现再代偿。 Abstract:Objective To investigate the influencing factors for recompensation in patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis, and to establish a predictive model. Methods A total of 217 patients who were diagnosed with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis and were admitted to The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming l from January, 2019 to December, 2022 were enrolled, among whom 63 patients who were readmitted within at least 1 year and had no portal hypertension-related complications were enrolled as recompensation group, and 154 patients without recompensation were enrolled as control group. Related clinical data were collected, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for the factors that may affect the occurrence of recompensation. The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed measurement data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed measurement data between two groups; the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A binary Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors for recompensation in patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive performance of the model. Results Among the 217 patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis, 63 (29.03%) had recompensation. There were significant differences between the recompensation group and the control group in HIV history (χ2=4.566, P=0.034), history of partial splenic embolism (χ2=6.687, P=0.014), Child-Pugh classification (χ2=11.978, P=0.003), grade of ascites (χ2=14.229, P<0.001), albumin (t=4.063, P<0.001), prealbumin (Z=-3.077, P=0.002), high-density lipoprotein (t=2.854, P=0.011), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (Z=-2.447, P=0.014), prothrombin time (Z=-2.441, P=0.015), carcinoembryonic antigen (Z=-2.113, P=0.035), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (Z=-2.063, P=0.039), CA125 (Z=-2.270, P=0.023), TT3 (Z=-3.304, P<0.001), TT4 (Z=-2.221, P=0.026), CD45+ (Z=-2.278, P=0.023), interleukin-5 (Z=-2.845, P=0.004), tumor necrosis factor-α (Z=-2.176, P=0.030), and portal vein width (Z=-5.283, P=0.005). The multivariate analysis showed that history of partial splenic embolism (odds ratio [OR]=3.064, P=0.049), HIV history (OR=0.195, P=0.027), a small amount of ascites (OR=3.390, P=0.017), AFP (OR=1.003, P=0.004), and portal vein width (OR=0.600, P<0.001) were independent influencing factors for the occurrence of recompensation in patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis. The ROC curve analysis showed that HIV history, grade of ascites, history of partial splenic embolism, AFP, portal vein width, and the combined predictive model of these indices had an area under the ROC curve of 0.556, 0.641, 0.560, 0.589, 0.745, and 0.817, respectively. Conclusion For patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis, those with a history of partial splenic embolism, a small amount of ascites, and an increase in AFP level are more likely to experience recompensation, while those with a history of HIV and an increase in portal vein width are less likely to experience recompensation. -
Key words:
- Hepatitis C /
- Liver Cirrhosis /
- Recompensatory /
- Risk Factors
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表 1 再代偿组与对照组一般资料比较
Table 1. Baseline characteristics between recompensation group and control group
项目 再代偿组(n=63) 对照组(n=154) 统计值 P值 男性[例(%)] 33(52.4) 102(66.2) χ²=3.650 0.065 年龄(岁) 50(43~56) 49(44~55) Z=-0.654 0.513 BMI(kg/m²) 22.22(21.11~24.46) 23.01(21.42~25.04) Z=-1.084 0.278 吸烟史[例(%)] 38(60.3) 105(68.2) χ²=1.230 0.274 糖尿病史[例(%)] 12(19.0) 26(16.9) χ²=0.145 0.844 高血压史[例(%)] 8(12.7) 19(12.3) χ²=0.005 >0.05 HIV史[例(%)] 4(6.3) 27(17.5) χ²=4.566 0.034 口服NSBB[例(%)] 9(14.3) 12(7.8) χ²=2.157 0.204 TIPS史[例(%)] 3(4.8) 3(1.9) χ²=0.360 0.236 内镜治疗史[例(%)] 12(19.0) 17(11.0) χ²=2.477 0.116 部分脾栓塞史[例(%)] 12(19.0) 11(7.1) χ²=6.687 0.014 饮酒史[例(%)] 31(49.2) 91(59.1) χ²=1.775 0.228 基因分型[例(%)] χ²=2.969 0.397 1 5(7.9) 11(7.1) 2 3(4.8) 7(4.5) 3 51(81.0) 133(86.4) 6 4(6.3) 3(1.9) Child-Pugh分级[例(%)] χ²=11.978 0.003 A级 16(25.4) 13(8.4) B级 34(54.0) 91(59.1) C级 13(20.6) 50(32.5) 腹水分级[例(%)] χ²=14.229 <0.001 无 14(22.2) 19(12.3) 少量 27(42.9) 38(24.7) 中大量 22(34.9) 97(62.9) 感染[例(%)] 23(36.5) 57(37.0) χ²=0.005 >0.05 HE[例(%)] 2(3.2) 10(6.5) χ²=0.516 0.270 HCV RNA阳性[例(%)] 49(77.8) 113(73.4) χ²=0.458 0.499 表 2 再代偿组与对照组的实验室检查结果比较
Table 2. Comparison of laboratory test between recompensation group and control group
指标 再代偿组(n=63) 对照组(n=154) 统计值 P值 WBC(×109/L) 3.67(2.57~5.42) 3.79(2.75~5.28) Z=-0.363 0.716 Neu(×109/L) 1.91(1.38~4.00) 2.27(1.54~3.70) Z=-0.457 0.647 Hb(×109/L) 122.00(94.00~137.00) 115.50(86.75~134.00) Z=-1.336 0.181 PLT(×109/L) 64.00(46.00~93.00) 65.00(43.00~92.25) Z=-0.320 0.749 TBil(mmol/L) 30.80(20.20~43.10) 31.80(19.75~49.53) Z=-0.653 0.514 ALT(U/L) 54.00(37.00~117.00) 59.50(41.75~96.50) Z=-0.318 0.750 AST(U/L) 44.00(24.00~77.00) 40.00(25.00~66.00) Z=-0.442 0.659 TP(g/L) 63.71±10.41 62.21±10.23 t=0.978 0.329 Alb(g/L) 32.20±5.81 28.68±5.83 t=4.063 <0.001 PA(mg/L) 109.90(85.40~144.00) 89.90(71.83~121.43) Z=-3.077 0.002 GGT(U/L) 55.00(36.00~137.00) 66.00(36.00~145.75) Z=-0.194 0.846 TC(mmol/L) 2.94(2.42~3.60) 2.80(2.15~3.45) Z=-1.388 0.165 LDL(mmol/L) 1.73(1.17~2.21) 1.41(1.03~1.99) Z=-1.659 0.970 HDL(mmol/L) 0.93±0.34 0.85±0.36 t=2.854 0.011 Cr(μmol/L) 59.00(54.00~70.00) 60.00(50.00~79.25) Z=-0.488 0.625 hs-CRP(mg/L) 1.49(0.63~4.53) 3.17(0.91~9.78) Z=-2.447 0.014 IL-6(pg/mL) 17.34(10.18~31.47) 18.75(11.33~37.73) Z=-1.136 0.256 PCT(ng/mL) 0.11(0.09~0.15) 0.13(0.09~0.23) Z=-0.822 0.411 APTT(s) 41.18±7.46 41.42±7.13 t=-0.214 0.829 PT(s) 15.90(14.70~17.90) 16.90(15.38~18.93) Z=-2.441 0.015 CEA(ng/mL) 2.98(1.79~4.73) 3.63(2.43~5.08) Z=-2.113 0.035 AFP(ng/mL) 9.33(4.77~18.86) 5.95(3.58~12.44) Z=-2.063 0.039 CA125(U/mL) 56.30(20.41~255.50) 160.13(31.77~324.55) Z=-2.270 0.023 CA19-9(U/mL) 25.28(11.00~41.38) 31.98(15.97~46.50) Z=-1.330 0.183 CA153(U/mL) 13.90(9.82~18.05) 15.37(11.33~20.91) Z=-1.601 0.109 PIVKA(mAU/mL) 23.40(18.00~36.00) 28.00(21.15~41.00) Z=-1.666 0.096 TT3(nmol/L) 1.76(1.42~2.06) 1.53(1.25~1.80) Z=-3.304 <0.001 TT4(nmol/L) 110.30(85.09~120.00) 92.70(76.85~111.52) Z=-2.221 0.026 TSH(μIU/mL) 2.41(1.75~3.60) 2.12(1.50~3.19) Z=-1.652 0.099 CD45+(个/μL) 1 032.06(756.63~1 297.77) 950.40(732.35~1 105.77) Z=-2.278 0.023 CD3+(个/μL) 767.60(523.15~967.34) 696.38(512.72~855.88) Z=-1.418 0.156 CD8+(个/μL) 218.05(150.78~353.83) 233.09(161.09~312.80) Z=-0.004 0.997 IL-1(pg/mL) 13.84(6.67~21.67) 12.19(5.15~19.66) Z=-1.366 0.172 IL-2(pg/mL) 3.24(2.69~4.58) 3.42(2.40~4.73) Z=-0.056 0.955 IL-4(pg/mL) 3.93±2.88 3.15±1.99 t=-1.949 0.055 IL-5(pg/mL) 2.84(2.03~3.67) 2.30(1.75~3.00) Z=-2.845 0.004 IFN-γ(pg/mL) 12.54(8.27~17.93) 10.75(6.63~17.13) Z=-1.098 0.272 IFN-α(pg/mL) 43.30(4.32~98.09) 18.71(4.10~90.87) Z=-1.580 0.114 TNF-α(pg/mL) 7.95(5.22~10.95) 6.43(4.36~9.08) Z=-2.176 0.030 表 3 再代偿组与对照组超声检查结果比较
Table 3. Comparison of ultrasound results between recompensation group and control group
指标 再代偿组(n=63) 对照组(n=154) 统计值 P值 门静脉宽度(mm) 12.00(10.00~13.20) 13.60(12.60~15.00) Z=-5.283 0.005 脾静脉宽度(mm) 9.00(6.00~10.00) 9.00(8.00~10.00) Z=-0.816 0.415 门静脉流速(cm/s) 14.21±3.36 13.73±2.76 t=-1.101 0.272 脾脏厚度(mm) 49.38±10.38 50.73±9.02 t=0.956 0.340 脾脏长度(mm) 138.80(124.00~153.00) 144.30(129.00~160.00) Z=-1.301 0.193 左肝长度(mm) 53.00(47.00~58.00) 54.00(50.00~58.55) Z=-1.362 0.173 右肝长度(mm) 109.00(96.00~119.00) 110.00(100.00~118.25) Z=0.051 0.959 表 4 多因素Logistic回归分析结果
Table 4. Results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis
项目 β值 SE Wald χ² OR 95%CI P值 HIV史 -1.634 0.737 4.918 0.195 0.046~0.827 0.027 少量腹水 1.221 0.509 5.746 3.390 1.249~9.199 0.017 部分脾栓塞史 1.120 0.569 3.867 3.064 1.004~9.350 0.049 AFP 0.003 0.001 8.182 1.003 1.001~1.006 0.004 门静脉宽度 -0.511 0.112 20.688 0.600 0.481~0.748 <0.001 注:HIV史赋值:是=1,否=0;部分脾脏栓塞史赋值:是=1,否=0;腹水赋值:中大量腹水=0,无腹水=1,少量腹水=2。
表 5 单个及联合预测因子的预测价值
Table 5. Predictive value of individual and combined predictors
项目 AUC 95%CI 敏感度 特异度 截断值 HIV史 0.556 0.475~0.637 0.175 0.937 腹水分级 0.641 0.560~0.723 0.630 0.651 部分脾栓塞史 0.560 0.472~0.647 0.929 0.190 AFP 0.589 0.503~0.676 0.556 0.649 8.79 门静脉宽度 0.745 0.671~0820 0.779 0.635 12.2 联合预测模型 0.817 0.751~0.882 0.841 0.701 -
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