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丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿患者再代偿的影响因素分析

许丹青 木唤 张映媛 常丽仙 王远珍 李卫昆 董智坚 张丽华 程怡菁 刘立

引用本文:
Citation:

丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿患者再代偿的影响因素分析

DOI: 10.12449/JCH250212
基金项目: 

佑安专科联盟科研专项基金 (LM202014)

伦理学声明:本研究方案于2023年7月11日经由昆明市第三人民医院伦理委员会审批,批号:KSLL2023071162。
利益冲突声明:本文不存在任何利益冲突。
作者贡献声明:许丹青、木唤负责课题设计,资料分析,撰写论文; 张映媛、常丽仙、王远珍、董智坚、张丽华、程怡菁参与收集数据,修改论文;刘立、李卫昆负责拟定写作思路,指导撰写文章并最后定稿。
详细信息
    通信作者:

    刘立, liuli197210@163.com (ORCID: 0000-0001-7712-4931)

Influencing factors for recompensation in patients with decompensated hepatitis C cirrhosis

Research funding: 

YouAn Specialist Alliance Research Fund (LM202014)

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  研究丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期患者再代偿发生的影响因素,建立预测模型。  方法  选取2019年1月—2022年12月在昆明市第三人民医院住院诊断为丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿的患者217例,至少1年之内再住院无门静脉高压相关并发症即再代偿组(n=63),未再代偿者为对照组(n=154)。收集相关临床资料,对可能影响再代偿发生的因素进行单因素及多因素分析。计量资料符合正态分布的两组间比较采用成组t检验,不符合正态分布的两组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验。计数资料两组间比较采用χ²检验或Fisher’s确切概率法。运用二元Logistic回归模型分析丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿患者再代偿发生的影响因素,采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC曲线)评价模型的预测效能。  结果  217例丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期患者中63例发生再代偿(29.03%)。再代偿组与对照组相比,HIV史(χ²=4.566,P=0.034)、部分脾栓塞史(χ²=6.687,P=0.014)、Child-Pugh 评分(χ²=11.978,P=0.003)、腹水分级(χ²=14.229,P<0.001)、Alb(t=4.063,P<0.001)、前白蛋白(Z=-3.077,P=0.002)、HDL(t=2.854,P=0.011)、超敏C反应蛋白(Z=-2.447,P=0.014)、凝血酶原时间(Z=-2.441,P=0.015)、CEA(Z=-2.113,P=0.035)、AFP(Z=-2.063,P=0.039)、CA125(Z=-2.270,P=0.023)、三碘甲状腺素原氨酸(Z=-3.304,P<0.001)、甲状腺素(Z=-2.221,P=0.026)、CD45+Z=-2.278,P=0.023)、IL-5(Z=-2.845,P=0.004)、TNF-α(Z=-2.176,P=0.030)、门静脉宽度(Z=-5.283,P=0.005)差异均有统计学意义。多因素分析结果显示,部分脾栓塞史(OR=3.064,P=0.049)、HIV史(OR=0.195,P=0.027)、少量腹水(OR=3.390,P=0.017)、AFP(OR=1.003,P=0.004)及门静脉宽度(OR=0.600,P<0.001)为丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期发生再代偿的独立影响因素。ROC曲线结果显示HIV史、腹水分级、部分脾脏栓塞史、AFP、门静脉宽度、联合预测模型的曲线下面积依次为0.556、0.641、0.560、0.589、0.745、0.817。  结论  部分脾栓塞史、少量腹水及AFP水平升高的丙型肝炎肝硬化失代偿期患者更容易出现再代偿,有HIV史、门静脉宽度增加的患者不易出现再代偿。

     

  • 图  1  单独预测再代偿发生的ROC曲线

    Figure  1.  ROC curve of predicting the recompensation using each individual indicator

    图  2  联合预测再代偿发生的ROC曲线

    Figure  2.  ROC curve of joint indicator predicting of recompensation

    表  1  再代偿组与对照组一般资料比较

    Table  1.   Baseline characteristics between recompensation group and control group

    项目 再代偿组(n=63) 对照组(n=154) 统计值 P
    男性[例(%)] 33(52.4) 102(66.2) χ²=3.650 0.065
    年龄(岁) 50(43~56) 49(44~55) Z=-0.654 0.513
    BMI(kg/m²) 22.22(21.11~24.46) 23.01(21.42~25.04) Z=-1.084 0.278
    吸烟史[例(%)] 38(60.3) 105(68.2) χ²=1.230 0.274
    糖尿病史[例(%)] 12(19.0) 26(16.9) χ²=0.145 0.844
    高血压史[例(%)] 8(12.7) 19(12.3) χ²=0.005 >0.05
    HIV史[例(%)] 4(6.3) 27(17.5) χ²=4.566 0.034
    口服NSBB[例(%)] 9(14.3) 12(7.8) χ²=2.157 0.204
    TIPS史[例(%)] 3(4.8) 3(1.9) χ²=0.360 0.236
    内镜治疗史[例(%)] 12(19.0) 17(11.0) χ²=2.477 0.116
    部分脾栓塞史[例(%)] 12(19.0) 11(7.1) χ²=6.687 0.014
    饮酒史[例(%)] 31(49.2) 91(59.1) χ²=1.775 0.228
    基因分型[例(%)] χ²=2.969 0.397
    1 5(7.9) 11(7.1)
    2 3(4.8) 7(4.5)
    3 51(81.0) 133(86.4)
    6 4(6.3) 3(1.9)
    Child-Pugh分级[例(%)] χ²=11.978 0.003
    A级 16(25.4) 13(8.4)
    B级 34(54.0) 91(59.1)
    C级 13(20.6) 50(32.5)
    腹水分级[例(%)] χ²=14.229 <0.001
    14(22.2) 19(12.3)
    少量 27(42.9) 38(24.7)
    中大量 22(34.9) 97(62.9)
    感染[例(%)] 23(36.5) 57(37.0) χ²=0.005 >0.05
    HE[例(%)] 2(3.2) 10(6.5) χ²=0.516 0.270
    HCV RNA阳性[例(%)] 49(77.8) 113(73.4) χ²=0.458 0.499
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  再代偿组与对照组的实验室检查结果比较

    Table  2.   Comparison of laboratory test between recompensation group and control group

    指标 再代偿组(n=63) 对照组(n=154) 统计值 P
    WBC(×109/L) 3.67(2.57~5.42) 3.79(2.75~5.28) Z=-0.363 0.716
    Neu(×109/L) 1.91(1.38~4.00) 2.27(1.54~3.70) Z=-0.457 0.647
    Hb(×109/L) 122.00(94.00~137.00) 115.50(86.75~134.00) Z=-1.336 0.181
    PLT(×109/L) 64.00(46.00~93.00) 65.00(43.00~92.25) Z=-0.320 0.749
    TBil(mmol/L) 30.80(20.20~43.10) 31.80(19.75~49.53) Z=-0.653 0.514
    ALT(U/L) 54.00(37.00~117.00) 59.50(41.75~96.50) Z=-0.318 0.750
    AST(U/L) 44.00(24.00~77.00) 40.00(25.00~66.00) Z=-0.442 0.659
    TP(g/L) 63.71±10.41 62.21±10.23 t=0.978 0.329
    Alb(g/L) 32.20±5.81 28.68±5.83 t=4.063 <0.001
    PA(mg/L) 109.90(85.40~144.00) 89.90(71.83~121.43) Z=-3.077 0.002
    GGT(U/L) 55.00(36.00~137.00) 66.00(36.00~145.75) Z=-0.194 0.846
    TC(mmol/L) 2.94(2.42~3.60) 2.80(2.15~3.45) Z=-1.388 0.165
    LDL(mmol/L) 1.73(1.17~2.21) 1.41(1.03~1.99) Z=-1.659 0.970
    HDL(mmol/L) 0.93±0.34 0.85±0.36 t=2.854 0.011
    Cr(μmol/L) 59.00(54.00~70.00) 60.00(50.00~79.25) Z=-0.488 0.625
    hs-CRP(mg/L) 1.49(0.63~4.53) 3.17(0.91~9.78) Z=-2.447 0.014
    IL-6(pg/mL) 17.34(10.18~31.47) 18.75(11.33~37.73) Z=-1.136 0.256
    PCT(ng/mL) 0.11(0.09~0.15) 0.13(0.09~0.23) Z=-0.822 0.411
    APTT(s) 41.18±7.46 41.42±7.13 t=-0.214 0.829
    PT(s) 15.90(14.70~17.90) 16.90(15.38~18.93) Z=-2.441 0.015
    CEA(ng/mL) 2.98(1.79~4.73) 3.63(2.43~5.08) Z=-2.113 0.035
    AFP(ng/mL) 9.33(4.77~18.86) 5.95(3.58~12.44) Z=-2.063 0.039
    CA125(U/mL) 56.30(20.41~255.50) 160.13(31.77~324.55) Z=-2.270 0.023
    CA19-9(U/mL) 25.28(11.00~41.38) 31.98(15.97~46.50) Z=-1.330 0.183
    CA153(U/mL) 13.90(9.82~18.05) 15.37(11.33~20.91) Z=-1.601 0.109
    PIVKA(mAU/mL) 23.40(18.00~36.00) 28.00(21.15~41.00) Z=-1.666 0.096
    TT3(nmol/L) 1.76(1.42~2.06) 1.53(1.25~1.80) Z=-3.304 <0.001
    TT4(nmol/L) 110.30(85.09~120.00) 92.70(76.85~111.52) Z=-2.221 0.026
    TSH(μIU/mL) 2.41(1.75~3.60) 2.12(1.50~3.19) Z=-1.652 0.099
    CD45+(个/μL) 1 032.06(756.63~1 297.77) 950.40(732.35~1 105.77) Z=-2.278 0.023
    CD3+(个/μL) 767.60(523.15~967.34) 696.38(512.72~855.88) Z=-1.418 0.156
    CD8+(个/μL) 218.05(150.78~353.83) 233.09(161.09~312.80) Z=-0.004 0.997
    IL-1(pg/mL) 13.84(6.67~21.67) 12.19(5.15~19.66) Z=-1.366 0.172
    IL-2(pg/mL) 3.24(2.69~4.58) 3.42(2.40~4.73) Z=-0.056 0.955
    IL-4(pg/mL) 3.93±2.88 3.15±1.99 t=-1.949 0.055
    IL-5(pg/mL) 2.84(2.03~3.67) 2.30(1.75~3.00) Z=-2.845 0.004
    IFN-γ(pg/mL) 12.54(8.27~17.93) 10.75(6.63~17.13) Z=-1.098 0.272
    IFN-α(pg/mL) 43.30(4.32~98.09) 18.71(4.10~90.87) Z=-1.580 0.114
    TNF-α(pg/mL) 7.95(5.22~10.95) 6.43(4.36~9.08) Z=-2.176 0.030
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  再代偿组与对照组超声检查结果比较

    Table  3.   Comparison of ultrasound results between recompensation group and control group

    指标 再代偿组(n=63) 对照组(n=154) 统计值 P
    门静脉宽度(mm) 12.00(10.00~13.20) 13.60(12.60~15.00) Z=-5.283 0.005
    脾静脉宽度(mm) 9.00(6.00~10.00) 9.00(8.00~10.00) Z=-0.816 0.415
    门静脉流速(cm/s) 14.21±3.36 13.73±2.76 t=-1.101 0.272
    脾脏厚度(mm) 49.38±10.38 50.73±9.02 t=0.956 0.340
    脾脏长度(mm) 138.80(124.00~153.00) 144.30(129.00~160.00) Z=-1.301 0.193
    左肝长度(mm) 53.00(47.00~58.00) 54.00(50.00~58.55) Z=-1.362 0.173
    右肝长度(mm) 109.00(96.00~119.00) 110.00(100.00~118.25) Z=0.051 0.959
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  多因素Logistic回归分析结果

    Table  4.   Results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis

    项目 β SE Wald χ² OR 95%CI P
    HIV史 -1.634 0.737 4.918 0.195 0.046~0.827 0.027
    少量腹水 1.221 0.509 5.746 3.390 1.249~9.199 0.017
    部分脾栓塞史 1.120 0.569 3.867 3.064 1.004~9.350 0.049
    AFP 0.003 0.001 8.182 1.003 1.001~1.006 0.004
    门静脉宽度 -0.511 0.112 20.688 0.600 0.481~0.748 <0.001

    注:HIV史赋值:是=1,否=0;部分脾脏栓塞史赋值:是=1,否=0;腹水赋值:中大量腹水=0,无腹水=1,少量腹水=2。

    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  单个及联合预测因子的预测价值

    Table  5.   Predictive value of individual and combined predictors

    项目 AUC 95%CI 敏感度 特异度 截断值
    HIV史 0.556 0.475~0.637 0.175 0.937
    腹水分级 0.641 0.560~0.723 0.630 0.651
    部分脾栓塞史 0.560 0.472~0.647 0.929 0.190
    AFP 0.589 0.503~0.676 0.556 0.649 8.79
    门静脉宽度 0.745 0.671~0820 0.779 0.635 12.2
    联合预测模型 0.817 0.751~0.882 0.841 0.701
    下载: 导出CSV
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