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ROC曲线对原发性胆汁性肝硬化患者预后诊断阈值的确定及意义

赵丹彤 廖慧钰 刘燕敏 黄春洋 张海萍 孙丽梅 马胤雪 赵艳 闫惠平

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Citation:

ROC曲线对原发性胆汁性肝硬化患者预后诊断阈值的确定及意义

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5256.2014.01.017
详细信息
  • 中图分类号: R575.22

ROC analysis of prognostic factors in Chinese patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

  • 摘要:

    目的采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线确定原发性胆汁性肝硬化(PBC)患者生存预后诊断阈值并评价其临床意义。方法以2001年10月至2009年9月北京佑安医院收治的155例确诊PBC患者为研究对象,进行随访,随访终点事件为死亡和(或)进行肝移植。对患者临床资料进行分析,符合正态分布的定量资料采用独立样本t检验,偏态分布的定量资料采用Wilcoxon秩和检验;计数资料采用χ2检验;偏态分布定量资料或分类变量资料采用Spearman秩相关分析法。采用ROC曲线确定预后诊断指标及阈值,采用Kaplan-Meier法进行组间生存率,评价临床意义。结果随访中位时间为50个月(6316个月),36例患者出现终点事件(33例患者死亡,3例患者进行了肝移植)。年龄≥55岁、TBil>1.8 mg/dl、血清总IgG>17.2 g/L、Mayo评分(MRS)>6.11对肝硬化阶段PBC患者具有预后诊断价值;4项指标作联合分析,串联的特异度可达99.18%,灵敏度为5.56%,总符合率为79.23%;并联时,其灵敏度可达100%,特异度为24.51%,总符合率为40....

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2013-05-08
  • 出版日期:  2014-01-20
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